How to NOT suck at your draft (part 2 draft day)
Drafting on host sites is fun but nothing beats live drafting home leagues. Although it's hard in times like these. My home league resorted to zoom chat and a draft board at the commissioner's home synced with an excel spreadsheet. It wasn't as good as the years past but we kept that home league feel by constantly making fun of each other's picks. Anyway, you didn't come to this blog to hear about my boring life you came here to dominate those friends of yours or random people you meet that share this obsession that is fantasy football. Today I'm going to share some tips that will help you on your draft day in general and get into some strategy in snake format drafts.
Arrive prepared: This is so simple yet overlooked by so many. Wether you're going to your couch or going up the coast to draft with a group from your hometown. You need to bring your rankings and tiers I wrote about in the previous blog. Preferably printed so you can cross guys off as you go. Every live draft I attend leaguemates show up without any prep done or my favorite one the magazine drafters. You'll have a significant advantage over these managers simply by having your up to date rankings and tiers relative to the league scoring.
Read the room: If you know your leaguemates well you know what types of players they favor and what teams they are a fan of. All the information you can get can help you. I draft in a league full of Bucs fans. I know for a fact I'm not getting Godwin or Evans unless I reach on them. Even if it's your first time in a group. Chat people up. Find out what teams they like and pick their brain a bit. Sometimes I'll even try to manipulate the room by talking down a player I'm targeting but be careful. You can't always be insincere. It's like sitting at a poker table. Can't be overly deceptive or you'll alienate yourself. Also, have a 2 drink limit during your draft and none of that medicinal herb. Impaired judgement WILL hamper your ability to draft.
Don't buy (too hard) into "Draft Strategies": If you've been around fantasy for any sort of time and have ears I'm sure you've heard all the strategies employed by anyalists. "RB-RB" "Zero RB" "Value Based Drafting" They all have thier advantages but the thing to keep in mind is you can't lock yourself into a certian strategy before a draft. You need to be fluid and let the draft come to you. Say you planned on getting two top tier RBs in the first 2 rounds but you only get one and you'd need to reach to get another. If you stuck to a RB-RB strategy you'd miss out on a difference maker at another position. Conversley if you are at the 10-12 spot and you planned on using a zero or modified zero RB strategy (not Drafting an RB till the later rounds) and you get 1 or 2 top tier RBs fall to you you'd be crazy not to take advantage of that turn of events. Basically you shouldn't really know if you are employing a strategy or plan until your are knee deep in that plan. If you know your draft position you'll have an idea who you want in the 1st and 2nd maybe even 3rd rounds but if a player a tier up falls to you you should be willing to abandon what you wanted to do and draft to form the best possible team.
STOP doing these things in your draft:
-Stop Drafting Ks and Defenses: Yes that's right. Don't draft em. Unless your league is set up so it forces you to draft a starting lineup or there's some crazy Kicker scoring system that would make Justin Tucker a top 20 fantasy option just don't. Use those picks for additional players that could be thrust into starting roles between the end of your draft and week 1. Then day before games find the games with the largest point spreads and take the favorite's defense. Don't worry if streaming is new to you follow me on twitter and this blog I'll give my streaming options each week for Defenses.
-Stop Drafting QBs early unless you get them well below ADP: (Except in superflex, 20+team or 2QB format) There used to be a saying about Pass Interference calls. "Pass Interference should call itself" Which means if it's not obvious and blatant it shouldn't be called. I've translated that into a rule for Drafting QBs. "QBs should draft themselves." If you're not getting a QB 2-3 rounds below thier ADP and you're in a 12 team league or smaller. Wait on QB till your last few picks or don't draft one at all. Sound crazy? It's not. Streaming QBs is a thing and it works. There's 32 starting QBs in the league only 12 are started in most fantasy leagues. Yes some managers will draft backups but even if half of them roster a backup that leaves 14 starters available to choose from every week. Basic supply & demand. Fact is there's a top 10 QB sitting on your waiver wire more weeks than not.
-Stop drafting your RBs handcuffs: This is a hotly debated topic amongst anyalists. I take the side of the man who made Late round QB a thing (JJ Zachariason) Draft season is NOT cuffing season. Cuffing a star RB may be advantageous late in the season for a playoff run but not this early in the season. Twards the end of your draft you should be looking for upside picks. Guys that have the clearest path to a workhorse role. A handcuff is an insurance policy. You don't want an insurance policy. You want lottery tickets twards the end of your draft. Exceptions are if you believe the handcuff could breakout to be as good or better than the starter he replaces or you get the cuff below his ADP. Then he becomes a value and draftable. Otherwise you're just forfeiting a roster position to get 60-80 percent of the production your starter gave you that went down. That spot is better used on players with clearer paths to touches and targets.
Stop worrying about bye weeks and filling your starting lineup: Bye weeks don't matter in any format except bestball. Don't look at them. It doesn't matter. Just stop. The end.
Obsessing over filling your starting lineup is something I see very often with bad managers. It kinda goes with the first 2 rules for K, Def, And QB. TE is along the same lines but it's much better to get one you can start every week. Streaming TEs isn't a good idea at all so have a few guys you are targeting and get one. If you miss on the first few don't go get one in the middle rounds you weren't targeting just to fill your TE spot before drafting bench spots. You want to continuously get the most impactful player every round.
Draft RBs early and often: Especially this season RBs are top heavy at the start of the draft. I'm not leaving the 1st two rounds from any draft position without at least 1 RB. You're painting yourself into a corner at the RB position if you don't. Get at least 1 bellcow if not 2 at the start of your draft. Even with the RB position becoming a minefield you still need to go full steam ahead and draft guys with the least amount of associated risk.
Draft a balanced portfolio: A fantasy team is like a stock portfolio in the sense that you want balance between safe players and volitale ones. Or as we say high floor and high ceiling. If you draft a guy like Derek Henry who's a high floor guy he would pair nicely with guys like Tyreek Hill or Aaron Jones who have super high ceilings but can give you weeks where they don't produce much. You'll need the stability of a guy like Henry to shield you from the low dips in production.
Shoot for upside late in your draft: After you build a solid base you are going to want to shoot for upside. Pick guys that have the clearest path to a full time or increased role in thier offense. Perfect example is Latavius Murray. He has a small role now and isn't really startable but if Kamara goes down he'd be a top 12 RB option instantly. Conversley, drafting guys late like Larry Fitzgerald or Breahad Perriman who don't offer much in the ways of upside gets you nothing more than a low end by week filler. Late in your draft you want to find lottery tickets. Guys that can find themselves in a high volume role.
I hope you enjoyed this basic outline for draft strategies. Next blog will get into more specific strategy for this season and round by round targets I like.
Thanks for reading and follow me on Twitter @Chris_Cianci
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