2020 Rookie Preview (RB edition part1)

  I've heard casual players say things like "I don't draft rookies" or "Rookies are always so overhyped in fantasy" and the first thing I think is God I hate baseless blanket statements. Yes some rookies can be unjustifiably over hyped but sometimes that hype is deserved. Saquan's hype was obviously justified. Then there's guys like... I don't know if you remember Bishop Sankey but well you get the picture. Regardless of how you feel about Rookies each player needs tobe looked at differently because well they are all different. Now here's the fun part. If you manage to form an opinion based on film, stats, or weighing different anyalists' opinions you can then have an advantage over the more casual players. Now my favorite way to guage a player is to watch film. I'll take anyalitics into account for sure especially YAC/A (yards after contact per attempt) and ellusive rating when comparing RBs but in the end Film is king and tells a whole story (if you know what to look for). Now enough talk about the process and let's dive into these guys. This group excites me as I think it's one of the best rookie RB classes in a long time. I have them listed in order of ADP but you'll notice I don't completely agree with where they are being drafted.

1) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) ADP:16

CEH went slightly under the radar during the college season last year compared to the higher profile backs. However, when you turn on the tape you see a back who's ready to start at an NFL level. He's strong and low to the ground with fantastic footwork. Great acceleration and quickness. Lacks breakaway speed but that's not a requirement at RB. His contact balance and ability to always get those few extra yards are the things that make you want to buy in on him. CEH is also a weapon in the pass game and can easily beat LBs in 1on1 covererage. Something Mahomes will surely take advantage of. He reminds a lot of people in the fantasy community of Ray Rice. I hate player comps but that's a fair one to make. With the Chiefs spending a first round pick on him and Damien Williams opting out for the season it leaves CEH as their feature back and the feature back in the Chiefs offense comes with RB1 upside. I think he's properly valued at his early second round ADP. The only argument against him is that role isn't guaranteed but nothing really is guaranteed in fantasy. We need to just pick the most likely scenario and for CEH it's that he will be a 3 down back for Andy Reid's offense.

2) Jonathan Taylor (Colts) ADP:32 

There's a ton of hype surrounding Jonathan Taylor and it's understandable. He's a size/speed freak at 5'11 220 with 4.4 speed. He breaks tackles as easily as I crack open beers. JT showed he could be a workhorse at Wisconsin and falls to the Colts who have one of the best OLs in football. Does he have a chance to become their workhorse and are you willing to spend a 3rd round pick to find out? That's the $1 question. When you watch his tape you see a punishing downhill runner. JT wastes no time with lateral moves. He finds his blocks and gets through the hole with purpose shreding arm tackles and finishing with power. He seems perfect for a zone blocking scheme but excells in man blocking scenarios as well. There's no doubt he benefited from a great OL at Wisconsin but the same can be said for Indy. After he gets to the second level he has another gear and can outrun defenders. He's a decent pass catcher and doesn't need to leave the field for passing downs but with Hines on the roster that might not be asked of him often. Mack projects as the week 1 starter but Taylor will be in the mix at some capacity. There is also a fumbling concern with Taylor. I'm not sure how Riech would react but benching a rookie after a fumble in a key spot is well within a range of outcomes. Also him losing out on goaline to Mack and passing duties to Hines. I loved Jonathan Taylor at his previous ADP in the 5th round but now being taken in the mid 3rd around guys like Fournette, AJ Brown, and Mark Andrews I think I'm sticking with more proven commodities. 

3) D'Andre Swift (Lions) ADP:62

Swift is a fun runner to watch. Thrives in a zone scheme where he can move laterally pick a hole and use his deadly slashing running style to plant his foot and explode through. Loves to cut off the back of his blockers to keep second level defenders off balance so he can run through tackles and create bad angles for persuit defenders. His explosiveness is the first thing you notice on tape. Ability to vary his speed forces defenders to guess on persuit angles often wrongly. Has the acceleration to beat defenders to the edge and turn the corner on outside runs but lacks the final gear on breakaway runs and often gets caught from behind on long runs. His running style draws obvious comparison to dalvin Cook but Swift runs with lower pads and more power. Swift really separates himself as a pass catcher. Great hands and absolutely deadly with the ball in space. Can line up outside or in the slot as well to create matchup nightmares for defenders. A true three down back whom I believe will take over the backfield in Detroit. For some reason the fantasy community believes Kerryon Johnson will continue to dominate touches or at the very least keep Swift relegated to a 5-10 touch role but I just don't see how that's possible. Swift is the better talent and should force this into (at minimum) a 50/50 share. I view Swift as a low end RB2/Flex which is basically how he's being drafted but if he takes the backfield over he has RB1 upside.

4) Cam Akers (Rams) ADP:64

Akers is harder to guage due to some poor OL play at FSU. He regularly abandoned the play and attempted a cutback or bounce outside due to lack in confidence of play design. Has a fantastic jump cut and keeps defenders off balance with his dynamic cuts. Explosiveness is apparent in his game. In short yardage has the power and pop to punch through defenders. Has yet to show ability to set up and follow blocks properly but it's undetermined if that's a product of what he dealt with at the college level or a knock on Akers as a runner. A natural pass catcher with above average hands. Can be a 3 down workhorse that dosent come.off the field which for the Rams and McVay is important to run that faced paced offense. Similarly valued and ADP to Swift although very different players offer similar upside as well. Although Akers has less of a challenge for touches from incumbent backs.

5) JK Dobbins (Ravens) ADP:83

Ok, prepare yourself for my love affair to reveal itself. I'll admit his situation isn't ideal. Ingram is the guy and I don't see him getting supplanted as the starter but man Dobbins is going to be hard to keep off the field. Sometimes you watch tape on a guy and can't help but say wow this guy is special. Dobbins is that guy. His vision is fantastic. Scans the line and sets up LBs on the second level to put them in bad position. Cuts fantastically off his blocks and sets them up beautifully. His knack for forcing defenders into committing and making bad decisions is a work of art. He can also squirt through the tightest of seams which is exactly what's needed to succeed at an NFL level. Watch his tape vs Clemson last year (one of the best defenses in the country) and you'll see everything I'm talking about. The offense he ran in college is also very similar to what he'll run with the Ravens. Now the question is can he translate any of this into fantasy production. The only barrier in my eyes is a 30 year old Mark Ingram. Check out this chart predicting breakout percentage for rookie RBs (this was before Damien Williams opted out) 

See who's there at the top? I think Mark Ingram's name more than anything else is keeping people yoff Dobbins but I can envision a 10-15 touch role for each of them in this offense which is basically what Ingram did in NO with Kamara. For the 7th round price he's worth I think it absolutely pays to find out. 

*ADP used from Fantasypros