Stock up 📈 Stock down 📉 Week 2 player value check.

   Think of your fantasy roster as a stock portfolio. Your players' values (or precieved values) change weekly or even daily. Properly valuing them is key to decision making and can enable you to manipulate perceived value comparative to a players actual value. This will keep you multiple steps ahead of the less skilled managers in your league. So you can "buy low" on a player that should rebound and "sell high" on a player that probably won't sustain his production. The tricky part is identifying a player's true value. Most casual managers almost exclusively look at production. They are point chasers. They see a big statline and believe that player will continue to produce those numbers. This is a flawed way of thinking. Production is obviously important. That's literally where fantasy points come from but opportunity and situation is more predictive. You need to look at the whole picture. Touches/targets. How efficient the player is in his role. Were those touches or targets in the redzone or at the Goalline? How is this player utilized in thier respective offense? Is their role dependent on game script? Is the player in a higher scoring offense? Was his usage or lack thereof based solely on a particular game plan? How deep were the players targets down the field? (That's where ADOT comes in and it's a very telling stat for WRs) as is YAC/A yards after contact per attempt for RBs but we're not going to dive too deep into advanced anyalitics just yet as with such a small sample size in week 1 they can actually be misleading. I'm simply going to list some guys that I'm higher or lower on now opposed to before the games week 1 and wether you should buy sell or hold them moving forward. 

Stock up

David Johnson DJ silenced his doubters in week 1 on national TV by not only producing but playing as the bellcow in HOU and an efficient one at that. He lined up all over the field and was used creativly in the passing game as well. I wouldn't sell highon him. His usage was promising and there's no major threat to his workload. If you didn't draft him you already missed the boat. If you have him hold him.

Raheem Mostert The 49ers were upset in San Francisco but that didn't stop Mostert from having a nice day. Especially through the air where he logged the fastest speed by a ball carrier on his long TD catch and run (according to next gen stats). I love Mostert as a sell high candidate here. The air quality led to Tevin Coleman being almost non existent and Jerrick Mckinnon still ate into Mostert's workload. This is a highly efficient run offense but it's a 3 headed backfield and if you can sell Mostert as an RB1 I would. 

Nyheim Hines I wrote a full description on how I felt about Hines personally in my waiver article but if you are in the camp that thinks Jonathan Taylor takes this backfield over completely Hines is a great sell high candidate. Coming off a 2TD performance and the anticipation of a larger role moving forward you might be able to pull a low end RB1/high end RB2 off someone.

Benny Snell Jr Snell's value is super high right now but I think he's the perfect candidate to sell high. The path to him becoming any sort of reliable RB2 has way to many hurdles for me. You'd be betting weekly on positive game script and would need Conner to be a non factor in this offense. If I own him I'm trying to flip him to the Conner owner or even the Chubb owner for a WR2 or a position I'm in need of. Because if you own Snell you def didn't draft him to be your RB2

Malcolm Brown He looked like the better back but I don't see Akers going away anytime soon. Teams generally don't give up on players they draft in the second round after 1 game. He's probably still a hold for me and I'm not buying the whole "he scored 2 TDs int he first game last year" narrative. Akers isn't Gurley. If you're loaded at RB sure you can sell but if I can flex him or even if I need a solid RB2 he's a hold.

Joshua Kelly Going into the game Kelly was viewed as splitting early down work with Justin Jackson but that didn't last long. He took over as the pounder and I think in more positive game scripts he can return RB2 value and... Dare I say out snap and touch Ekeler. Best thing is week 2 they play the Chiefs so lots of negative game script will probably lead to Ekeler dominating touches making Kelly a prime buy low. Right now he's a hold. 

Parris Campbell Another guy from my waiver article. Parris played in the hyper efficient/Rivers favorite slot position 93% of the time Sunday. That completely changes the outlook for him. He should offer WR2 value moving forward. He's not quite valued that high so he's actually a buy for me. Even at his increased value. Target "Point chasing managers" they can be spotted by checking their lineups and seeing Campbell on their bench. Throw a lowball offer at them. See what happens.

Darius Slayton Golden Tate missed this game but I don't think it would have made much of a difference. Slayton looked like the #1 WR in this offense and it really wasn't close. Doing what he did against a really tough matchup in Pittsburgh D is the hallmark of a stud WR. He's a hold for me. If you didn't get him prior to this you'll have to wait for a few down games to buy him at a reasonable price. 

Robby Anderson Another guy from my waiver article. Idk if I'm buying the volume role he had in this offense just yet. If I own him I might sell high but the targets were there and his talent is there. He's likely a hold for me unless I'm loaded at WR and in need somewhere else

Corey Davis Big performance on national TV usually leads to a big jump in value. If you can sell high on him I'd pull the trigger. Even if you can't right now he has 2 good matchups coming up. Hold him for 2 weeks then try and sell him even higher. 

Russell Gage Falcons had insane passing volume week 1 Julio/Ridley/Gage all saw 12 targets. I think this will be a high volume attack but I don't think Ryan throws 54 times every week. I also doubt Gage will match Julio's or Ridley's targets on any kind of consistent basis. He's a sell for me if you can find a buyer. 

Noah Fant Looked like the player the Broncos envisioned when they drafted him last year. Shurmur likes to feature an athletic TE and he's got a great one here. Depends on your TE situation. If you drafted him to be your guy he's a hold. If he's a #2 to a guy like Andrews or Kelce flip him for a WR or RB

T.J. Hockenson His role was slightly boosted by Golladay missing the game but I think he's going to have a TE1 level role moving forward. Same as Fant Hold if you need him or flip if you don't. 

Cam Newton 15 rush attempts. That's amazing for for his value but for a 31 year old QB that's just not sustainable. I'd hold and play him until around his week 6 bye then try and flip him 

Aaron Rodgers Don't doubt Aaron Rodgers. He's vaulted himself back into high end QB1 status and with his schedule I don't see him coming down. I'm not going to buy high on a QB but I'd take him if I can get him at a reasonable price. 

 

Stock Down

Nick Chubb There will be better days for Chubb but even in his best case scenario he's an extremely game script dependent boom or bust RB2. If Baker continues his terrible play it's not going to get much better. Chubb gets the Bengals this week an easy smash spot. If he does smash try to flip him immediately. 

Mark Ingram Outsnapped by JK Dobbins and only 10 touches (0 targets). Ingram's once solid RB2 value came crashing down. To make matters worse Dobbins operated as the Goalline back and scored on his 2 opportunities. The hope is that the game was well in hand so they rested the vet RB. He gets the Texans this week who were just shredded by CEH. If you can find a panicked manager send a low-ball offer. 

D'Andre Swift The usage was promising. He led the Lions in snaps and targets. Yet all everyone saw was the drop to end the game. It was brutal but I don't think he falls out of favor because of it. I'll buy him if I can get him for cheap. 

Chris Thompson With James Robinson looking like the bellcow in Jacksonville Thompson was almost non existent. I had to do a double take when I saw he was on the field for 26% of the snaps because I didn't notice him at all. 0 carries 2 Targets. All that considered He's going to be a hold for me. I'd like to see what happens in negative game scripts. 

James Conner This one hurts. I was really high on Conner and drafted him a bunch. The whole "injury" was strange. We saw nothing and Conner looked dejected ok the sidelines. He also didn't look good for the few touches he had. I get the feeling there's more to his absence than just the ankle injury. I wouldn't buy him and if you own him you gotta juts hold on till you get more clarity.

DJ Moore Some managers overreact to week 1 production. Try and take advantage of that and buy Moore at a discount coming off a slightly dissapointing game

Tyler Boyd Getting off to a slow start in a rookie QBs first game dosen't concern me at all. I'd send out a few offers for Boyd and see if I can steal him off a roster or 2. He's in a good spot this week against a Cleveland secondary that was easily beaten by Lamar and Co. 

Cooper Kupp Talks of heavy 12 personnel scared managers away from Kupp in drafts. The thought was his snap rate would suffer. 83% week 1 begs to differ but the production wasn't there with Goff only completing 20 passes Goff will have higher volume nights and Malcolm Brown won't score 2TDs a week. Kupp is a definite buy low. 

Odell Beckham Beckham just hasn't been the same since his NY Giants days. He seems out of sync with Baker again and we can't blame Kitchens anymore. I guess hold if you own him and hope for the best. Buying low is an option but only if you can get him at his proper value WR4/5

Rob Gronkowski He was never high for me but I know he was for some. His 70ish percent snap rate was surprising but he didn't look good and production was almost non existent. If you have him try to sell on name alone.

Austin Hooper 2 targets and Njoku outproducing Hooper week 1 tanked his value. Now with Njoku out I'd call him a hold to see if his role increases

Baker Mayfield Maybe in the off-season Baker should have focused more on Football rather than making commercials. He's a drop for me in 10-14 team leagues. 

That's it for my first Stock up/stock down blog. Let me know what you think and follow me on twitter @Chris_Cianci